We Are Not Your Real Parents: Telling Causal from Confounded using MDL

Given data over variables $(X_1,...,X_m, Y)$ we consider the problem of finding out whether $X$ jointly causes $Y$ or whether they are all confounded by an unobserved latent variable $Z$. To do so, we take an information-theoretic approach based on Kolmogorov complexity. In a nutshell, we follow the postulate that first encoding the true cause, and then the effects given that cause, results in a shorter description than any other encoding of the observed variables. The ideal score is not computable, and hence we have to approximate it. We propose to do so using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We compare the MDL scores under the models where $X$ causes $Y$ and where there exists a latent variables $Z$ confounding both $X$ and $Y$ and show our scores are consistent. To find potential confounders we propose using latent factor modeling, in particular, probabilistic PCA (PPCA). Empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real-world data shows that our method, CoCa, performs very well -- even when the true generating process of the data is far from the assumptions made by the models we use. Moreover, it is robust as its accuracy goes hand in hand with its confidence

{VoG}: {Summarizing} and Understanding Large Graphs

How can we succinctly describe a million-node graph with a few simple sentences? How can we measure the "importance" of a set of discovered subgraphs in a large graph? These are exactly the problems we focus on. Our main ideas are to construct a "vocabulary" of subgraph-types that often occur in real graphs (e.g., stars, cliques, chains), and from a set of subgraphs, find the most succinct description of a graph in terms of this vocabulary. We measure success in a well-founded way by means of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle: a subgraph is included in the summary if it decreases the total description length of the graph. Our contributions are three-fold: (a) formulation: we provide a principled encoding scheme to choose vocabulary subgraphs; (b) algorithm: we develop \method, an efficient method to minimize the description cost, and (c) applicability: we report experimental results on multi-million-edge real graphs, including Flickr and the Notre Dame web graph

Stratigraphy, Sedimentology, and Moisture Contents in a Small Loess Watershed in Tama County, lowa

A traverse across a small first-order watershed in loess has been studied. The loess is Wisconsin in age and has a vertical tripartition that can be explained on a regional basis. Clear stratification is present in the middle loess increment. Moisture distribution patterns correlate highly with differences in particle-size distribution. The explanatory physical phenomena must be moisture-tension relationships

{MDL4BMF}: Minimum Description Length for Boolean Matrix Factorization

Matrix factorizations—where a given data matrix is approximated by a prod- uct of two or more factor matrices—are powerful data mining tools. Among other tasks, matrix factorizations are often used to separate global structure from noise. This, however, requires solving the ‘model order selection problem’ of determining where fine-grained structure stops, and noise starts, i.e., what is the proper size of the factor matrices. Boolean matrix factorization (BMF)—where data, factors, and matrix product are Boolean—has received increased attention from the data mining community in recent years. The technique has desirable properties, such as high interpretability and natural sparsity. However, so far no method for selecting the correct model order for BMF has been available. In this paper we propose to use the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle for this task. Besides solving the problem, this well-founded approach has numerous benefits, e.g., it is automatic, does not require a likelihood function, is fast, and, as experiments show, is highly accurate. We formulate the description length function for BMF in general—making it applicable for any BMF algorithm. We discuss how to construct an appropriate encoding, starting from a simple and intuitive approach, we arrive at a highly efficient data-to-model based encoding for BMF. We extend an existing algorithm for BMF to use MDL to identify the best Boolean matrix factorization, analyze the complexity of the problem, and perform an extensive experimental evaluation to study its behavior

Causal Inference by Stochastic Complexity

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion is not computable. We hence propose to do causal inference by stochastic complexity. That is, we propose to approximate Kolmogorov complexity via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, using a score that is mini-max optimal with regard to the model class under consideration. This means that even in an adversarial setting, such as when the true distribution is not in this class, we still obtain the optimal encoding for the data relative to the class. We instantiate this framework, which we call CISC, for pairs of univariate discrete variables, using the class of multinomial distributions. Experiments show that CISC is highly accurate on synthetic, benchmark, as well as real-world data, outperforming the state of the art by a margin, and scales extremely well with regard to sample and domain sizes

Federated Learning from Small Datasets

Federated learning allows multiple parties to collaboratively train a joint model without sharing local data. This enables applications of machine learning in settings of inherently distributed, undisclosable data such as in the medical domain. In practice, joint training is usually achieved by aggregating local models, for which local training objectives have to be in expectation similar to the joint (global) objective. Often, however, local datasets are so small that local objectives differ greatly from the global objective, resulting in federated learning to fail. We propose a novel approach that intertwines model aggregations with permutations of local models. The permutations expose each local model to a daisy chain of local datasets resulting in more efficient training in data-sparse domains. This enables training on extremely small local datasets, such as patient data across hospitals, while retaining the training efficiency and privacy benefits of federated learning

Efficiently Discovering Locally Exceptional yet Globally Representative Subgroups

Subgroup discovery is a local pattern mining technique to find interpretable descriptions of sub-populations that stand out on a given target variable. That is, these sub-populations are exceptional with regard to the global distribution. In this paper we argue that in many applications, such as scientific discovery, subgroups are only useful if they are additionally representative of the global distribution with regard to a control variable. That is, when the distribution of this control variable is the same, or almost the same, as over the whole data. We formalise this objective function and give an efficient algorithm to compute its tight optimistic estimator for the case of a numeric target and a binary control variable. This enables us to use the branch-and-bound framework to efficiently discover the top-$k$ subgroups that are both exceptional as well as representative. Experimental evaluation on a wide range of datasets shows that with this algorithm we discover meaningful representative patterns and are up to orders of magnitude faster in terms of node evaluations as well as time

Factoring Out Prior Knowledge from Low-dimensional Embeddings

Low-dimensional embedding techniques such as tSNE and UMAP allow visualizing high-dimensional data and therewith facilitate the discovery of interesting structure. Although they are widely used, they visualize data as is, rather than in light of the background knowledge we have about the data. What we already know, however, strongly determines what is novel and hence interesting. In this paper we propose two methods for factoring out prior knowledge in the form of distance matrices from low-dimensional embeddings. To factor out prior knowledge from tSNE embeddings, we propose JEDI that adapts the tSNE objective in a principled way using Jensen-Shannon divergence. To factor out prior knowledge from any downstream embedding approach, we propose CONFETTI, in which we directly operate on the input distance matrices. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world data show that both methods work well, providing embeddings that exhibit meaningful structure that would otherwise remain hidden